EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF DYNAMIC RELATIONS AMONG FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POVERTY PREVALENCE USING AFRICAN DATA

Abstract

This study examined dynamic relations among foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth and poverty headcount ratio using a sample of 24 African Countries. To achieve this goal, historical data of the variables regarding cross section of countries were collected over 14-year period. The stratified random sampling technique was employed in selecting the sample. Following pre-regression diagnostics, we specified Vector-Auto-Regression model for computation of coefficients of the variables in dynamic relations. These were complimented with computation of relative impulse response function and forecast-error-variance decomposition of regression estimates. We found that FDI did not granger-cause economic growth among African economies, just as growth was found not sustainable and inclusive enough as to achieve substantial poverty reduction. More-so, evidence appeared to support earlier isolated findings that FDI has been largely exploitative and attracted to economies with high growth rates and low poverty ratios. The study reinforces earlier isolated findings that it is not necessarily ‘growth’ that results in decline in poverty prevalence but ‘sustained economic growth’. Hence most developing nations that depend on annual fiscal plans for poverty reduction may consistently miss development targets. Again, contrary to widely held view that foreign direct development leads to
economic growth, the study established exceptional case for Africa.